Weekly update 12/12/26 BITCOIN, SPY, GOLD & OIL

0:10 – 11:41

Bitcoin looks bottomed on the big picture, but frothy on the short one

The video opens with Tom staring at Bitcoin from the monthly chart outward, and the first image he paints is surprisingly calm: price has already gone through the kind of damage a bear market is supposed to inflict, touched the long watched moving average zone, and climbed back above the 10 and 20 monthly exponentials. His conclusion on that higher time frame is blunt, it "looks very much like we've bottomed." He backs that up with momentum evidence. On the monthly RSI, the long pattern of lower lows and lower highs across cycles has softened. On MACD, the long bearish phase appears to be ending, with the average line curling up toward zero even if the bullish crossover is not quite there yet. Then he drops down a level and the tone changes. On the weekly chart, he sees the kind of bullish divergence that often marks important lows, lower lows in price, higher lows in RSI and MACD, plus a reclaim of major moving averages. But on the daily chart, the market now looks stretched. He points to bearish divergence, higher highs in price but lower highs in RSI and MACD, while the fear and greed index sits around greed or extreme greed. His unexpected angle is that this is exactly when breakout traders feel smartest, and also when distribution often happens. In plain English, the market needs eager buyers up here so bigger players have someone to sell to. From there he zooms all the way out and makes his broader Bitcoin argument. The recent bear market was about 252 days and a 54.26% correction, much smaller than prior drawdowns of 77%, 84%, and 86%. To him, that is not evidence the cycle model is dead. It is evidence that each bear market is getting milder, and now even shorter. That supports his long term Elliott Wave count: a stack of overlapping wave twos leading into what he thinks should become the largest Bitcoin bull market yet in price terms, even if not in percentage terms. His example is memorable: an older cycle gained 11,945% but only about $19,000 in price, while later cycles gained less in percentage but much more in dollars. So a future move of 400% to 500% could still mean a quarter million dollars of upside from the low. The caution comes back fast. Tom says he sees bullishness, liquidity, and retail excitement entering the market now, which is why he expects weakness first. If panic returns later, that is when he expects to be buying aggressively again.