BITCOIN & CRYPTO, IS THE BOTTOM IN?

0:00 – 12:14

Stop the tribal warfare and question every neat market story

He opens not with a price target but with a plea: stop acting like children. The room is split, his own community poll is sitting near a 52 to 48 divide, and that alone tells the story. If the informed people watching the same market cannot agree on whether the bottom is in, then all the smug finger pointing and "I told you so" talk is just theater. From there he starts dismantling the tidy explanations people love. "Bitcoin will just do what tech does, bro" worked for a long stretch, until it did not. The four year cycle worked on the way up and on much of the way down, but if the low is already in, then this cycle may simply have been front run, not destroyed. M2 money supply looked like a powerful guide as well, until Bitcoin stopped obeying it cleanly. His point is not that these models are useless. It is that each one can be strongly right for a while, then strongly wrong. The most concrete example comes from software stocks. He points to names like Intuit and ServiceNow, both of which rolled over in a way that looked a lot like Bitcoin after the November 2021 top. That helps explain why Bitcoin could seem linked to the Nasdaq for years, then suddenly "decouple" when the AI hyperscaler boom pulled the broader tech index higher while software stayed under pressure. In his framing, Bitcoin was never simply correlated to all of tech. It was correlated to a vulnerable slice of tech that got crushed. That leads to the broader lesson: correlation is not causation, and market narratives are usually partial truths pretending to be full answers. So before touching the charts, he wants viewers to let go of the need for a single master key. The market may be part cycle, part macro, part sector rotation, part sentiment. If you insist it must be only one of those, you are probably seeing what you want to see.