Asset Reviews 09/06/26 FISV, SIVE, SK HYNIX, FCEL, ISRG, TSLA

0:09 – 24:05

FISV, a collapsed chart that looks cheap but is still falling

The video opens with a wreck. Tom pulls up Fiserv and the first number that matters is brutal: a 77% decline. That instantly stands out because, compared with the stock's prior corrections of roughly 48%, 52%, 53%, and 41%, this is the most severe drawdown in its visible history. His first instinct is not to call a bottom, but to slow everyone down. A completed five-wave rise into a major top does not guarantee a clean recovery. In the real world, as he puts it, a stock can finish a wave one, the company can go bankrupt, get delisted, and there is no wave three. That is his reminder that chart structure shows probability, not destiny. From there he works through the anatomy of the damage. Momentum lines up with a major top, the strongest RSI and MACD readings appeared where a larger wave three should peak, and the final push into the high was unusually strong. The current selloff, in his view, looks impulsive, not like a tidy finished correction. That matters because impulsive declines often mean more work remains, even if a powerful countertrend rally appears. He points to bullish divergence building on the daily and weekly, monthly oversold conditions, and a huge gap in the volume profile that will likely attract price back upward at some stage. His phrase is memorable: the stock wants to pop. But wanting to pop is not the same as having already bottomed. Then he flips to the financials, and the mystery sharpens. Revenue had been growing from 2019 into 2025, then only softened slightly. Net income, though, fell hard, from about $1 billion to $800 million to $571 million. Earnings also rolled over sharply into Q1 2026. Free cash flow fell off a cliff. So the chart's punishment is not random, something changed recently and the market repriced it fast. He dislikes the balance sheet too: debt sits above equity, working capital is not attractive, and he questions why management would prioritize buybacks or shareholder enhancement while debt remains elevated. His verdict is nuanced. Yes, there may be real value here. A rally back to the 38.2% retracement could mean more than a 100% gain, and the 61.8% retracement could mean more than 200%. But he treats that as a future B wave possibility, not proof of a fresh secular bull market. The practical message is simple: do not confuse oversold with safe. If you want exposure, keep it small until the chart stops acting like a falling knife and starts proving a turn.