WEEKLY UPDATE BITCOIN, S&P & GOLD 19/07/26

0:01 – 15:08

Bitcoin, when boredom and bad headlines are usually the setup

Tom opens with a point that feels almost backwards on purpose: the time to get interested in Bitcoin is often when nobody wants to hear about it, or when it is back in the news for "negative reasons" and everyone is calling it dead again. He leans on history here, saying this is his "almost completed third rodeo" through a full Bitcoin bull and bear cycle, and that each time the emotional script is similar. The surprising angle is that he welcomes the scathing attacks, because in his framework bad sentiment is not proof of failure, it is often evidence that the market is getting close to a better long term opportunity. From there he zooms out to the four year cycle, his anchor for the whole Bitcoin section. His base case is still the familiar pattern of three years up, one year down, with a likely bear market low somewhere from mid October to mid November. He is careful not to present that as certainty, but he treats it as the best map available unless price action clearly invalidates it. On the long term chart he updates the scale of past drawdowns: roughly 86%, 84%, 77%, and so far 54% in the current bear market. That sequence matters because each bear market has been less severe than the last. In plain English, Bitcoin keeps suffering brutal declines, but the brutality has been fading over time. He then ties that decline pattern to a larger Elliott Wave idea: nested structures of larger into smaller wave degrees, which is his way of saying Bitcoin may still be in the early chapters of a much bigger secular bull market. To make that concrete, he compares it to old long term stock charts like Apple, where years of messy groundwork came before the explosive phase people remember. He also points to the monthly indicators to support the idea that the worst selling may already be behind the market. Bitcoin has reached and slightly traded below the 60 month exponential moving average, the monthly MACD has already delivered the kind of bear market signal seen in prior cycles, and after nine months of bearish momentum he thinks the sharpest downside force has likely been spent, even if price can still drift or flush lower. The emotional core of this section is simple: do not confuse a market going nowhere for 164 days with a broken market. In Tom's framing, that kind of deadness is exactly what a late bear market often feels like.