Green Star Trading
Weekly update 11/07/26 S&P, GOLD, BITCOIN & OIL
Summarised with Bite · 13 min read
Tom walks through four major markets as one connected puzzle: an S&P that still looks technically bullish even while he distrusts the AI fundamentals, a gold market he thinks has likely entered a cyclical bear phase, a Bitcoin market showing bullish divergences but no confirmed bottom, and an oil market where price calm hides a much darker supply story. The value of the video is not just the charts, it is his repeated lesson that opinions do not matter until trend actually breaks, and that most traders get hurt by trying to call tops and bottoms before the market gives permission.
0:01 – 22:59
S&P at the highs, while Tom argues with his own disbelief
The video opens with Tom half apologizing for a stomach bug, half apologizing for the fan noise, then he drops straight into the S&P 500 and immediately frames the core tension of the whole episode: the market looks strong, even though he does not trust the story underneath it. On the monthly chart, price is basically back near all time highs, still far above the major moving averages, and nowhere near the kind of deep correction zones that marked the global financial crisis, COVID, or 2022. He notes some mild warning signs, bearish divergence on OBV and RSI, plus a monthly candle that could be read as a hanging man, but he is careful not to oversell it. His point is almost annoyingly disciplined: those are hints, not proof. As he moves down to weekly and daily, the picture stays unresolved. Volume on the push higher has softened, and RSI is weaker than at prior highs, but there is still no clean pivot, no decisive breakdown, no weekly evidence that the trend has truly rolled over. He compares the current action to a coil or triangle, the kind of sideways squeeze that can explode violently in either direction. That uncertainty leads into his Elliott Wave discussion, where he presents a very bullish count that keeps extending higher from the 2009 lows. He admits this count feels absurdly bullish, but says that discomfort is irrelevant. If the trend keeps printing higher highs and higher lows, then the count that respects the trend gets priority. The unexpected angle comes when he stops talking charts and talks belief. He says plainly that he does not see a return on investment from the current AI capital spending boom. In his words, the payoff is being priced in now, and he does not think it is coming in 3 months, 6 months, or 9 months. Yet he refuses to short just because the narrative feels irrational. He has heard “the crash is coming” for more than a decade and a half, and says anyone who listened too early would simply have missed the move. That is the real lesson of the section: technicals are not magic, but they are often the only map left when fundamentals stop making intuitive sense. He would rather look foolish riding a trend too long than smart stepping in front of it too early.
3 more sections in the app
- 22:59 – 46:32Gold as the trade everyone still loves too much
- 46:32 – 59:46Bitcoin near the expected cycle low, but still missing the one thing that matters
- 59:46 – 1:10:50Oil fills the war gap, then Tom argues that the real crisis never went away
